First-round byes for the top performing teams: (1) Seahawks and (1) Broncos…
- Seattle Seahawks (14–3) — First-round bye
Upside: League-best profile: elite net points, seven-game finish, complete team.
Downsides: Rust risk with the bye • offense can tighten if forced into pure dropback • injuries at skill spots would change the math. - Denver Broncos (14–3) — First-round bye
Upside: No. 1 seed in the AFC with a defense built for January football.
Downsides: Red-zone efficiency swings • turnovers under pressure can flip games • must prove they can win a shootout if it gets weird. - New England Patriots (14–3)
Upside: High-end QB play and excellent situational control; can win multiple ways.
Downsides: If the run game stalls, they can become pass-heavy • penalties can kill “finish” drives • protecting late leads is non-negotiable. - Jacksonville Jaguars (13–4)
Upside: Eight-game win streak entering the postseason; consistent two-way efficiency.
Downsides: Must finish in the red zone vs playoff defenses • pass-pro cracks vs elite edges • any turnover spike removes their margin. - Los Angeles Rams (12–5)
Upside: Highest-scoring playoff team in the NFC; explosive ceiling travels.
Downsides: Defense can give up chunks in bunches • protection vs top fronts is the limiter • special teams volatility in tight games. - Buffalo Bills (12–5)
Upside: Offense can put games out of reach fast; proven playoff toughness.
Downsides: Run fits can leak at the worst time • penalties/discipline late • must convert red-zone trips into TDs, not FGs. - Houston Texans (12–5)
Upside: Nine-game win streak; defense + ball security profile screams “dangerous.”
Downsides: Can they win when trailing early? • pass-pro against heavy blitz looks • red-zone playcalling gets tight versus elite athletes. - San Francisco 49ers (12–5)
Upside: Physical brand travels; front seven can tilt matchups.
Downsides: Skill-position health/availability • run game can get bottled vs disciplined fronts • third-quarter lulls have shown up. - Philadelphia Eagles (11–6)
Upside: Trenches give them a playoff floor; they can win ugly.
Downsides: Slow starts • coverage stress vs motion/crossers • red-zone defense can bend too far. - Chicago Bears (11–6)
Upside: Division champ with a defense that can carry a postseason run.
Downsides: Offensive consistency drive-to-drive • must handle pressure packages better • late-game clock/finish execution. - Los Angeles Chargers (11–6)
Upside: Can score with anybody when on schedule; veteran QB steadies them.
Downsides: Pass-pro volatility vs games/stunts • defensive injuries change the ceiling • slow starts make them chase. - Pittsburgh Steelers (10–7)
Upside: Turnover-capable defense; playoff-tested identity and toughness.
Downsides: Offensive explosiveness comes in spurts • red-zone creativity can lag • penalties in leverage downs. - Green Bay Packers (9–7–1)
Upside: Underdog profile with enough offense to steal a road game.
Downsides: Four-game skid entering playoffs • protection issues vs elite rush • run game can disappear vs top fronts. - Carolina Panthers (8–9)
Upside: Battle-tested; can shorten games and force tight fourth quarters.
Downsides: Negative scoring profile suggests thin margin • limited comeback gear if down two scores • must win special teams/turnover battle to survive.
